economics

Continuing Econ-Ed

The contrast between light and dark in a pine forest, determining which trees and ecosystems survive or flourish, is similar to how governments use or misuse taxpayer resources to determine what programs, often with life-altering consequences, live or die.

About four years ago in March 2022, I wrote a blog called GOVEROSITY! , ie. Government Generosity, with the following excerpt:

“With the passage of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, the Democrats are helping the hardest hit, most impoverished Americans, recover from the health and economic impacts after one year of the Covid-19 pandemic. Recall the Trump Administration gave about $1.9 trillion mostly to the wealthy people and companies in tax cuts. After Covid hit the United States, Congress and the Trump Administration provided about $2 trillion to help families, airlines, hotels, and other businesses through the Paycheck Protection Plan as reported by CNBC. In December 2020, the government gave out $900 Billion for Covid relief.”

I wrote this blog before passage of the roughly trillion-dollar Inflation Reduction Act in August 2022, designed to accelerate the clean-energy economy, lower prescription drug prices, and reduce the national deficit. Did all these efforts compounded by both Administrations have the unintended consequences of contributing to inflation?

Currently, I’m reading the book Common Sense Economics: What Everyone Should Know About Wealth and Prosperity, updated last year by several professors and published by St. Martin’s Press.

The publication website cites Vernon L. Smith, the 2002 Nobel Prize winner, as stating, "This book provides the ABCs of how the world creates wealth without anyone having to be in charge because of market incentives—people are free to specialize, and by focusing on what they can do best for themselves, do unintended good for the rest of us. There is no other route to human betterment and poverty reduction."

The book authors share data on how consistent money supply keeps prices stable but large increases in the money supply diminishes the value of the currency (e.g. dollar) which results in prices increasing, know as inflation. Between the years 2000-2019, the U.S. money supply grew an average of 6% but in 2020 the money supply spiked by 25%. It takes about a year after large increases in money supply to see inflation so both parties contributed to rising prices but the Democrats took most of the blame as I shared in another blog on the 2024 election.

Common Sense Economics contains four parts describing key elements of economics, economic progress, economics of government, and personal finance. The entire book offered me to challenge my confirmation biases and conventional thinking to look at economic issues from different perspectives. The section on government economics illustrates how a democracy without fiscal restraints to control spending, raise taxes, and balance the budget is unsustainable and cannot survive due to special interest groups and voters acting in their self interests. Can we imagine if the U.S. continues in the same direction the fallout will be needing a bailout from the International Monetary Fund as happened to the Greek economy in 2010 associated with severe austerity programs reducing people’s standard of living?

Common Sense Economics offers many interesting insights and case studies including:

  • The Industrial Revolution followed by the Transportation-Communication Revolution created and expanded prosperity lead to economic development worldwide.

  • The World Bank in 2015 stated global trade and lowering trade barriers helped eradicate extreme poverty. Hostility towards trade can have catastrophic results as witnessed in the 1930’s.

  • Regulatory policies can impose roadblocks against trade and entry into markets that could be counterproductive.

  • Countries that impose obstacles to exchange, either domestic or international, reduce the ability of their citizens to achieve gains from trade and to enjoy more prosperous lives.

  • Broken windows fallacy - a boy breaking a window may give a job to the glass company but takes resources away from the owner.  Destructive acts, such as tariffs, claiming to create jobs that are considered good for the economy are a fallacy.

  • We must consider secondary effects and long term consequences in all our actions. To reduce gasoline consumption, fuel efficient mandates might reduce size and weight of vehicles but are less safe and people might drive more than before increasing congestion.

  • The Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1933 reduced supply of agricultural products to prevent prices falling resulted in destruction of crops and livestock.

  • Taxpayers and consumers spend about $20 billion annually to support grain, cotton, tobacco, peanut, wool, dairy, sugar and more agriculture programs due to strong lobby groups.

  • Cash for Clunkers program in 2009 paid dealers about $4,000 to destroy an older vehicle as trade in for new one, resulting in prices increasing, costing taxpayers $3 billion in subsidies and 700,000 used cars were destroyed costing $2 billion.

  • Competition gives business strong incentives to create better, cheaper, faster products but often businesses resist and lobby against competition and desire monopolies.

  • Economic freedom results in the demand for a cleaner environmental quality (Goodman Institute).

  • Wisely invest your time and personal finances through education, skills, budgeting, spending, investing and using insurance to manage risk.



Gaining a Competitive Advantage with ESG

OMG! Will ESG be the megatrend that transforms our planet? Environmental, Social and Governance is certainly becoming an important trend for businesses, investors, and governments.

Robert Eccles, Professor of Management Practice at Harvard Business School, and other scholars have compiled articles on Sustainability and Shareholder Value.

He wrote in 2016 that, “Recent research provides persuasive evidence of a latent investor appetite for the reporting of material ESG information that goes beyond conventional financial statements… In April 2015, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, in his now-annual letter to the CEOs of portfolio companies, said that investors “also have an important role to play, which is why we engage actively with companies on the key governance factors that in our experience support long-term, sustainable, financial performance. Chief among these is board leadership—in our view, the board is management’s first line of defense against short-term pressures… In a world increasingly sensitive to income inequality and suspicious of the corporate quest for profit, promoting a broader understanding of the role of the corporation in society is one of the most pressing issues facing the sustainable development movement. It will become even more important now that the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were ratified by all United Nations’ Member States in September of 2015. As social expectations continue to rise about how corporations, especially the world’s largest corporations, can contribute to a more sustainable society, companies have no choice but to respond. Ultimately, the company’s license to operate comes from civil society. However, the company needs to be clear on which issues are a priority, as determined by its chosen significant audiences, and which are not. The Statement of Significant Audiences and Materiality offers the board has a unique and unprecedented opportunity to present a clear and credible view of their company’s role in society—one that can guide management’s decision-making and its interactions with its significant audiences and other stakeholders.”

A recent positive example of ESG becoming relevant is the banning plastic straws and stirrers used in drinks to cut pollution, particularly in the oceans, which is gaining popularity in several coastal states of the U.S., in Europe and with many businesses like Starbucks and Alaska Airlines. I learned that a Girl Scout began a non-profit called Jr Ocean Guardians and is credited with starting the trend!

Check out Yahoo Finance which provides a watchlist of companies that rank high for sustainability.

MSCI ranks 6,400 companies and 400,000 equity and fixed income securities globally and says this trend is catching in Asia as it has in the western world.

 

Interesting Eco Books for Our Reading Pleasure

Here are some books available at the local library that I’ve found most interesting reading this summer:

Edward O. Wilson, 2016 Half Earth: Our Planet’s Fight for Life

David Grinspoon, 2016 Earth in Human Hands: Shaping Our Planet’s Future

Auden Schendler, 2009 Getting Green Done: Hard Truths from the Front Lines of the Sustainability Revolution

Jeffrey D. Sachs, 2008 Common Wealth: Economics for a Crowded Planet

Living in the Now and Planning for More than Just Today

I've heard a famous spiritual teacher say the past is like a cancelled check and the future is not here yet. We can live with our full awareness on the present moment while at the same time consider living our lives for more than just today. Anyone who wonders where their next meal will come from or where they will sleep at night is living day to day. Most people with jobs are living month to month and spending most of what they make on expenses and saving very little if anything. Getting a financial education for most of us is learning by the school of hard knocks and there is also luck involved - who could have predicted the housing market crash? My parents taught us to be generous while also being aware of how to make and keep a buck. For years I've said at work - another day another dollar!

Over the course of a career, we've learned to spend no more than 25% of our income on housing and find ways to pay off loans as quickly as possible. I always prefer a 15 year over a 30 year loan for the lower interest rates and total savings. The real estate industry may want us to buy a larger home and spend more than we really need as they get paid by commissions. Living within our means, separating our wants from our needs, and conserving resources works for our family; however, this is not typical in the consumer society where we always seem to want more. Consider we bought our 42" flat screen TV nine years ago. It is the only TV in our home. We've been admiring all the fancy new sets with 70" curved screens as a major want but not a need - only when our TV stops working can we justify getting a new one as we are content and grateful for what we have now. One financial planner said to consider not only the present cost but also the future compound interest. For example, investing instead of buying that $1,000 TV today results in about doubling the amount at 5% interest over 30 years. 

By analogy, how do we want (or need) to save and spend our natural resources? Do we want to search for water and food supplies on a daily, weekly, monthly, or yearly basis? Sustainability is really all about wise planning so we do not waste what we have and need now and not forsake our future. Perhaps society focused on consumption rather than saving for the future is great for corporate profits but not so great for future generations as populations increase and natural resources diminish. A great book on the topic is by E.O. Wilson Biodiversity Foundation who advocates we must save half of the Earth to protect many species from extinction and ultimately if we are to save humanity as well. The Hopi society promotes the idea of considering how a decision we make might affect the next seven generations. I think about all the great civilizations that have come and gone including the Puebloans, Greeks and Romans and wonder if global consumerism promoting wants will eventually be extinguished by sustainable survivalists, like the Hopi, who are careful to control what they really need.